February 25, 2023

Ukraine largely fought off the barrage of Russian cyberattacks in the first 12 months of the war. But those tracking cyber threats say Russian hackers are primed to ramp up again — and Kyiv may find it tougher to fend off the attacks in the year ahead.

In recent weeks, two threat intelligence firms have warned that Russia is set to escalate its cyberattacks in Ukraine. Google’s Threat Analysis Group said last week it had “high confidence” that Moscow “will increase disruptive and destructive attacks” in 2023 if the war shifts “fundamentally” in Ukraine’s favor. Cyber threat intelligence firm Recorded Future predicted this month that Russian cybercriminals will “almost certainly” support Russia’s next big military push against Ukraine.

“We’re entering a new phase of the war,” said Gabby Roncone, technical threat intelligence analyst at Google-owned Mandiant, a cybersecurity firm. “Despite all of the successes that defenders have had with stopping Russian cyberattacks, the GRU is very persistent,” she added, referring to Russia’s military intelligence arm. Other Kremlin hacking groups continue to present a threat to Ukraine, too, she said.

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