August 1, 2019

Thanks to the joint efforts of China and the ASEAN states, the present South China Sea situation has become more peaceful and stable, with tensions being mitigated and promising signs evident. However, various challenges and uncertainties remain, such as the increasing military footprint of extraregional powers, unilateral actions aimed at maximizing the self-interest of various claimant states, the dense complexities entailed in the article-by-article negotiation of the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) text, and the persistent impact of the July 12, 2016 ruling by the Arbitral Tribunal in the Philippines’ South China Sea arbitration case. These destabilizing headwinds, along with the advance of the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy, risk overturning the general trend toward peace and stability in the South China Sea.

Stabilizing Factors in the South China Sea

The South China Sea issue has been cooling down in recent years thanks to the progress made through joint efforts by China and ASEAN as well as relevant ASEAN countries. To begin with, bilateral cooperation between China and ASEAN has been maturing in a comprehensive manner more than 15 years since the establishment of the China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership. This relationship has ranged from economic and cultural engagement to security and maritime management. Relations today face a new set of opportunities and stand primed for advancement.

Read more:

https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/whats-next-for-the-south-china-sea/