International banks raise China GDP forecasts on strong economic data
2025-07-18 10:23:24 source：CGTN
July 17, 2025
China's economy expanded by 5.3 percent in the first half of 2025, exceeding expectations and prompting multiple major international banks to revise their full-year growth projections upward.
Key economic indicators demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year. Industrial output from major firms rose 6.4 percent, buoyed by a 9.5 percent surge in high-tech manufacturing. Retail sales, a critical gauge of consumption, climbed 5 percent, marking an acceleration from the first quarter. Meanwhile, exports grew 7.2 percent during the same period.
Following the data release, multiple financial institutions have raised their 2025 GDP projections for China. Morgan Stanley has lifted its forecast from 4.5 percent to 4.8 percent, citing export resilience and proactive fiscal policy; UBS has revised its estimate sharply from 4.0 percent to 4.7 percent; and Goldman Sachs has nudged its forecast up from 4.6 percent to 4.7 percent, according to Global Times. Meanwhile, ANZ has upgraded its projection from 4.2 percent to 5.1 percent, one of the most bullish adjustments, reported Bloomberg.
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