December 14, 2025

Affordability pressures are weighing heavily on the White House heading into next year’s midterm elections. They’re also offering cautious hope in Mexico and Canada that the U.S. won’t abandon its trilateral trade pact as the three countries enter a high-stakes review.

Interviews with nine current and former U.S., Canadian and Mexican officials and trade experts suggest a guarded belief that inflation politics heading into the 2026 midterms could temper President Donald Trump’s more explosive threats on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

USMCA, the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term, governs about $1.5 trillion in annual North American commerce, setting the rules for everything from cars to corn. A built-in “sunset review” requires the three countries next year to decide whether to extend the pact for another 16 years.

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