October 19, 2016

"After the Cold War, the US and Russia have become 'frenemies,' with the status of their ties swinging from good to bad, and then the other way. If their relationship becomes too bad under a previous president's regime, a change of leadership can reboot their ties. The upcoming two years will mark a new cycle of the US-Russian relationship as Washington is in the heat of a presidential race, and Moscow will have Duma elections this year and a presidential election in 2018. Some Western scholars believe that both countries have engaged in a public confrontation.

After the signing of Minsk Protocol and the ceasefire in Syria, the US-Russian relationship had a brief span of improvement. But the relaxation can barely reverse the plummeting US-Russian ties that took place after the Ukraine crisis.

In the Cold War, the US and former Soviet Union had developed a tacit understanding about how to deal with their frictions - when tensions rose to a tipping point, they took measures to cool down. However, this time, both countries have not shown any signs of self-restraint. The most terrible scenario for both countries is not a face-off, but a chronic lack of channels to talk about and seek reconciliation."

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