October 21, 2016

"The Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling against China on July 12, 2016 drove a stake into the heart of China’s narrative that it had historic rights to nearly all of the South China Sea and could prevent its neighbors from fishing in their EEZs and for drilling for oil and gas in their continental shelf areas. The arbitral tribunal also issued a very strong rebuke of China’s island building activities, prompting China to lash out against a number of countries; most notably, the United States, Australia, Japan and also South Korea (although China is also upset with South Korea for its announcement to deploy THAAD in defense against North Korean missiles).

In early August, it appeared that China was on a collision course with Japan. Both countries have a vigorous dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and China was incensed by Japan’s statements both supporting the arbitral ruling and publicly urging China to comply. On August 1 China held a significant live fire drill in the East China Sea that included the firing of 'dozens' of missiles and torpedoes. There were also reports that six Chinese coast guard vessels and over 200 fishing vessels swarmed in the vicinity of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. On August 7, Japan reported that it had issued multiple protests to China after it found that China had installed ocean surveillance radar 'facilities' on a number of its offshore gas platforms. Finally, there are continuing reports of China’s deployment of its maritime militia of fishing vessels in contested areas in the East China Sea."

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