October 27, 2016

"The interactions of two sets of variables have played a key role in shaping cross-strait relations. One is the domestic dynamics of Mainland China and Taiwan. The second is the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. Given the relatively stable balance of power during the first Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration in 2000-2008, the interaction between the Chen Shui-bian administration’s push toward independence and Beijing's reaction to stop Chen was the primary cause of the instability across the Taiwan Strait. The return of the Kuomintang (KMT) to power in 2008 started eight years of progress towards peace and stability because of the positive interactions between the Ma Ying-jeou administration and Beijing.   

The good old days of stability, however, have been replaced by a stalemate or cold peace after the Tsai Ing-wen administration came to power in 2016. Although President Tsai has taken a rational approach in her promise to maintain the status quo across the strait and her reiteration of Taiwan's good will and commitment toward cross-strait ties, she has refused to speak on Beijing's terms of the 1992 Consensus, by which both sides agreed to disagree on what the term 'one China' means, because it would not only likely alienate her DPP supporters but also violate her own beliefs. The stalemate, however, is fragile because of Beijing's perception of the balance of power tilting towards its favor. As Chinese leaders have relied increasingly on coercive measures, the fragile cold peace could be replaced by inflaming tensions and hot crisis should either side fail to maintain pragmatism. "

Read more:

http://www.ippreview.com/index.php/Home/Blog/single/id/265.html

NISCSS does not necessarily share in or endorse the opinions of off-site commentators.