December 16, 2016

"Aaron Friedberg, the former deputy assistant for national security affairs of the US Vice President, wrote an article cited more than 800 times in International Security in 1993, in which he predicted that Asia was ripe for rivalry. His argued that military conflicts in Asia were unavoidable after the Cold War because, unlike European countries, Asian countries lack or have shaky pillars supporting peace — democracy, international institutions, and economic independence in the era of multipolarity. However, he might have cast this pessimistic prediction too early and for the wrong reasons. Asia is ripe for rivalry after Donald J. Trump became US President-elect in November 2016, and the root of the ensuing conflict is the uncertainty of US commitment toward its Asian allies.  

Many have claimed uncertainty is what Asia will face in the era of Trump but less have clearly answered why uncertainty is dangerous for Asia and how. The simple answer to these two questions is 'a security dilemma.' A security dilemma is essentially a situation in which two countries are competing militarily with each other because both are stimulated by each other’s defensive preparations. Country A is not sure about the intention of country B, so A decides to further militarily protect itself by purchasing more weapons or deploying more forces. However, country B perceives the behavior of country A as offensive in nature so B responds with the same logic. Although there are multiple communication channels between the two countries, the uncertainty of the intentions only amplifies doubt and fear toward each other. A security dilemma usually ends with an eruption of military conflict between the two countries, and this may be the situation Asian countries will be led to during a Trump presidency. "

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