February 8, 2025

Recently, the Philippines has been leveraging external partnerships to heighten tensions in the South China Sea. After the joint air patrol, it conducted a multilateral maritime cooperative activity. These military "ensembles," presented in the name of demonstrating security commitments and maintaining the rules-based order, resemble an orchestrated display of military posturing — with dangerous sparks repeatedly ignited by Manila flickering within.

The US-Philippines show of allied power in the South China Sea serves as a calculated demonstration centered on the so-called security issues, carrying specific symbolic meanings. First, it emphasizes that the US-Philippines security alliance remains strong, and that the US' "security commitment" to the Philippines should be realized through joint maritime actions, rather than merely remaining on the phone line between the Filipino foreign minister and the US Secretary of State. Second, it demonstrates to the US allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region that bilateral and minilateral military security cooperation remains active and operational. In a sense, the US-Philippines joint patrols in the South China Sea have turned into mobile billboards showcasing the credibility of major external powers' alliances.

While stoking tensions at sea, the Philippines still frequently exaggerates the so-called China threat. This political manipulation is crystal clear in its intentions.

From the Philippine Department of Justice's reckless call for a new South China Sea international case, to the Philippine Department of National Defense's unfounded accusations of Chinese warships passing through the Basilan Strait, to the National Bureau of Investigation stirring up claims of "Chinese spies," these statements are not based on genuine security concerns, but function as political leverage for domestic politics. A think tank member in Manila once told me: "True security is not gained by courting external powers. The current discussions of security issues in Philippine politics have become a fixture of the election season."

From bilateral air patrols to joint maritime patrols, the carefully selected aerial shots and covert sailing routes are less about military deterrence aimed at China, and more about the Philippines curating a theatrical narrative tailored to stir up security issues in the public discourse.

Afterwards, in their sanctimonious statements, the US and Philippines deliberately replace the internationally accepted term South China Sea with the West Philippine Sea. This is not only a geographical term substitution but also a form of "boiling the frog in the warm water" in the realm of cognition. This discourse strategy mirrors the legal packaging of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration award — where China's Nansha Islands were fragmented into individual islands and reefs in legal terms, the islands, reefs and shoals in the Nansha Islands were referred to as "maritime features," and overlapping waters were framed as "Philippines' exclusive economic zone." Such systematic discourse transformation is an attempt to create a psychological suggestion of legitimate existence in the international public opinion arena.

All of this reinforces the Philippines' perception that it has received political and diplomatic support from the US and its allies, giving it more confidence. However, from the statements of the spokesperson of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command, it is evident that every little provocation in the South China Sea is fully under control, and the PLA will not allow the Philippines to run rampant in the region. It will take appropriate countermeasures when necessary. During the Chinese New Year, China's air and naval forces, as well as the China Coast Guard, maintained combat readiness patrols and law enforcement patrols in the South China Sea. This no respite during the holidays posture itself is the most vivid form of diplomacy.

Unlike the deterrence logic of certain countries, China's naval forces' routine presence at key islands, reefs and critical waters in the South China Sea is more like the basic move in a game of Go — focusing on long-term strategic positioning rather than short-term spectacle, but by accumulating strategic momentum through daily legitimate rights protection. Now, the South China Sea game has entered the marathon mode, where the competition is about strategic patience and comprehensive strength.

When the US-Philippines-led bilateral and multilateral joint patrols turn into a military carnival, and when Philippine President Marcos ties the presence of the Typhon system in the Philippines to the South China Sea issue, a real danger is no longer about how far the missiles can reach, but how quickly the range of policy rationality is shrinking.

Undoubtedly, the US-Philippines military adventurism will increase the risk of misunderstandings, misjudgments, and accidental clashes, reinforcing the reality that external interference and Philippine actions are fueling instability, undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea and stirring up regional confrontations.

Ding Duo is Ding Duo is Director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

Link:https://enapp.globaltimes.cn/article/1328067