September 22, 2025

The warm Manila air felt heavy with more than just tropical humidity as I concluded a round of think tank exchanges recently. Across polished conference tables and during coffee breaks that stretched into earnest conversations, one topic consistently dominated our discussions - the recent maritime incidents near Huangyan Dao and China's establishment of the Huangyan Dao national nature reserve. This topic, repeated in various forms by academics, journalists and policymakers, lies at the heart of the current complex moment in the South China Sea.

What emerges clearly from these conversations is that understanding the South China Sea situation requires us to hold two apparently contradictory truths simultaneously. First, despite dramatic headlines and social media posturing, the overall situation remains fundamentally stable and peaceful. Second, this very stability is being tested by new challenges that demand ever more creative diplomacy and wise leadership from all involved parties.

The remarkable reality - often overlooked in sensational reporting - is that the South China Sea continues to function effectively as a zone of peace and commerce. No military conflicts have erupted, no features in the Nansha Qundao have been recently occupied and, most importantly, the vital arteries of global commerce continue to pulse uninterrupted through these waters. This maintenance of navigational freedom and safety is crucial not just to regional economies but to global trade networks that depend on unimpeded passage.

This peace isn't accidental or incidental. It results from conscious efforts and deliberate policy choices, particularly through the "Dual-Track Approach" that China has championed and that ASEAN members have broadly supported. This approach wisely separates the management of overall stability (a collective responsibility of China and ASEAN) from the resolution of specific disputes (to be handled through negotiation by directly concerned states). It has served the region well for years and remains the most sensible framework for maintaining peace.

However, this hard-won stability faces real tests that cannot be minimized. 

The increased frequency and scale of US military exercises and the enhanced security cooperation between the Philippines and external powers have introduced new complications into an already complex environment. The recent incidents between Chinese and Philippine vessels represent more than just isolated events; they reflect a deteriorating trust that worries all serious regional observers. 

China's establishment of the Huangyan Dao national nature reserve appears widely misunderstood in Manila. During my discussions, I explained repeatedly that this initiative primarily serves environmental protection purposes - to preserve vulnerable coral reefs from overfishing and damage. The regulations will apply equally to Chinese and foreign fishermen, with enforcement conducted impartially by China Coast Guard vessels. Most importantly, this designation does not signal plans for construction but rather represents a commitment to environmental stewardship that should transcend political disagreements. We can expand practical cooperation on marine environmental protection, scientific research, and search and rescue operations - areas where mutual interest is obvious and political barriers are lowest.

Sitting in Manila, hearing both concern and hope from my counterparts, I was reminded that the South China Sea connects us more than it divides us. The current tensions, while serious, shouldn't be allowed to determine our future. The waters that lap at all our shores sustain our peoples, our economies and our ecosystems in ways that transcend political boundaries.

With calm leadership, a commitment to dialogue and a rejection of external provocation, the nations of the region can ensure these waters remain a sea of peace, cooperation and shared opportunity. The challenges are real, so is the collective wisdom to address them. 

As I concluded my trip, I found myself reflecting on the true test of our generation - whether we can transmit these waters to our children in better condition than we found them - both environmentally and politically. This will require seeing beyond immediate tensions to our shared long-term interests in peace, stability and environmental sustainability.


The author is director of the Research Center for International and Regional Studies at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

Link:https://enapp.globaltimes.cn/article/1344188