Why Beijing will not rule out Scarborough Shoal construction？
2026-07-18 19:55:58 source：scmp
July 13, 2026
With Manila intensifying its “transparency” campaign, how does China view the current situation and what challenges does it face?
Manila’s so-called “assertive transparency” initiative operates on its own distinct logic and playbook. [The initiative includes documenting and publicising what Manila calls Chinese grey-zone tactics, such as blockades and the use of water cannons.]
Since 2023, the Philippines has deliberately intruded into the waters around Renai Jiao [the Chinese name for the disputed Second Thomas Shoal], deliberately provoking China into intercepting its vessels or deploying water cannons.
On-board media outlets then package these confrontation scenes into short, viral videos and disseminate them globally. These clips manufacture an international perception that “China is the bully in the South China Sea and the Philippines is the victim”. This is the core mechanism behind their public relations strategy.
Behind this are Philippine domestic political considerations, aimed at securing more budget and equipment support from the Philippine Congress for its coastguard.
In contrast, Beijing’s energy has been primarily concentrated on rule-making. For instance, in promoting consultations for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC), negotiations have been grinding steadily forward for over a decade since 2013.
Concurrently, working group meetings on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea [DOC] recently convened for their 56th session in Vietnam. These institutional frameworks are where China invests the bulk of its diplomatic capital.
Regarding narrative construction, there was a period when China was in a passive position, especially during the 2023 Second Thomas Shoal stand-off and later when the Philippines intruded on Sabina Shoal and spread false information such as“China intends to occupy the feature”.
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